The U.S. is significantly reducing its greenhouse gas emissions due to the surge in clean energy, but it still falls short of its Paris Climate Agreement targets, according to a new report by Rhodium, a research firm monitoring the country’s climate progress.
The Paris Agreement, joined by 194 countries, aims to limit global temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius. The U.S. committed to cutting its emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, Rhodium’s analysis forecasts that U.S. emissions will only drop by 32% to 43% by 2030, and by 38% to 56% five years later.
The report highlights rapid growth in clean energy investments, economic decoupling from fossil fuels, and the positive impact of President Joe Biden’s climate policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, in accelerating electrification.
However, there are obstacles: increased electricity demand from data centers, a recent Supreme Court ruling limiting federal regulatory power, and starkly different climate policies between Democrats and Republicans as the election approaches.
The U.S. set records in 2023 for adding solar power and clean energy storage to the grid. Ben King, an associate director at Rhodium, noted that recent years mark a significant shift in climate policy. “This is where clean energy went mainstream,” King stated. “It’s real business. It’s not your hippie neighbor with solar panels on the roof.”
Despite these advances, the energy transition is still too slow to meet U.S. emissions goals without additional policy measures. The report suggests that to achieve the upper range of its emissions reduction forecast (43% by 2030), the rate of adding new clean energy capacity must increase dramatically.
King pointed out that the renewable energy industry faces several barriers that need to be addressed to expedite project completion. “There have been some real challenges in the near term — challenges with building transmission lines, plugging these facilities into the grid and just getting the stuff to install, especially for wind post-Covid,” King explained, adding that finding sites and securing permits are also ongoing issues.
The urgency for new electricity sources is clear. The report estimates that electricity demand will be 24% to 29% higher in 2035 compared to 2023, driven by the electrification of vehicles and appliances and the increased use of energy-intensive data centers for AI, cryptocurrency mining, and cloud computing. This anticipated demand is much higher than Rhodium’s previous year’s forecast.
Investment in clean energy, transportation, and technology is growing rapidly. In the first quarter of 2024, $71 billion was invested in the sector, a 40% increase from the same period in 2023.
Clean energy now represents more than 5% of private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods, according to the report.
“It’s cool to see private capital really flowing into the clean tech space and hopefully finding some winners, some technologies, that are really going to help move the needle,” King remarked.
The Rhodium report notes that much of the U.S.’s greenhouse gas trajectory depends on the upcoming November election. Republicans could attempt to dismantle parts of the Inflation Reduction Act if they gain control of the White House and Congress. In June, Donald Trump’s campaign told Politico he would withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again if elected.
The report also anticipates a wave of challenges to environmental policies following the Supreme Court’s Chevron ruling, which limits federal agencies’ power. The next administration will play a crucial role in addressing these challenges.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com.
